Market Outlook ---- September 24, 2010

Dealer’s Diary

The key benchmark indices skidded for the second straight day, tracking subdued European markets after data suggested weak economic activity in that region. Moreover, in domestic economic news, the spike in food inflation in the latest week rekindled worries that the Central Bank may interfere to check it earlier than expected. The market breadth turned negative in late trade from positive breadth earlier in the day. Interest rate-sensitive banking and realty stocks led the fall. The Sensex and Nifty closed down by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. While BSE mid-cap index closed low by 0.2%, the small-cap index closed flat in green. Among the front liners, HUL, ONGC, ITC, M&M and JP Associates gained 1–2%, while ICICI Bank, RIL, Bharti Airtel, Cipla and DLF lost 1–2%. Among mid caps, Dalmia Cement, BF Utilities, REI Agro, PTC India and HT Media gained 5–9%, while Blue Star, Rajesh Exports, Indiabulls Real Estate, Radico Khaitan and Indusind Bank lost 4–5%.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 19877/5966 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 19982 – 20104/6000– 6041 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 19877/5966 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 19756–19650/5926–5892 levels.

Economic and Political News

·         Food grain output looks comfortable in kharif 2010, says Pawar

·         Food inflation rises to 15.46%; rains, floods push up prices

·         Govt. clears 24 FDI proposals worth Rs2,727cr

Corporate News

·         EIH to raise Rs1,300cr via rights issue; gets board nod

·         KEC Intl. completes acquisition of SAE Towers

·         L&T to foray into South Africa's power sector; to form a JV

·         RCOM moves TDSAT challenging disconnection notice by BSNL

Market Outlook ---- September 23, 2010

Dealer’s Diary

The market breadth was weak, contrasting strong breadth in the opening session of trade. High volatility was the hallmark of the day's trading session. The Sensex and Nifty slipped below the levels of 20,000 and 6,000, respectively, in mid-morning trade, after touching a 32-month peak in opening trade. The key benchmark indices slumped to the day's low in mid-afternoon trade as heavyweights underwent correction following a three-day surge and hit fresh intraday lows in afternoon trade as European stocks fell in early trade. The Sensex and Nifty closed down by 0.3% each. However, BSE mid and small-cap indices closed down by 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively. Among the front liners, Maruti Suzuki, HDFC, SBI, Tata Power and Wipro gained 1–4%, while JP Associates, RCOM, L&T, TCS and Infosys lost 2–3%. Among mid caps, JSL Ltd., Triveni Engg., Punj Lloyd, Hotel Leela, Gammon India and Dalmia Cement gained 5–17%, while Geekay Finance, Jubilant Food Works, Berger Paints and Ispat Industries lost 4–5%.

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 19950/5992 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 20097–20252/6037–6083 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 19950 / 5992 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 19795 –19649/5946-5901 levels.

Economic and Political News

• EPFO asks private PF trusts to pay 9.5% interest
• Farm output rise to ease food inflation, says Ahluwalia
• Gold rises to record high after Fed rates nod
Corporate News
• IOC unveils plan to double petrochemical revenue to Rs15,000cr
• Nestle to invest Rs1,230cr in new plant, R&D centre
• ONGC ventures into shale gas exploration

Market Outlook ---- September 22, 2010

Dealer’s Diary
The key benchmark indices logged smart gains for the third straight session on foreign institutional investors' buying spree and robust 2Q advance tax payments from frontline companies. Nevertheless, volatility was intense as the Sensex and Nifty gyrated near their psychological levels of 20,000 and 6,000, respectively, along with achieving their highest levels in 32 months. Despite the rise, the market breadth was weak, as small and mid-cap stocks underwent correction. While, FMCG shares declined on profit booking, software pivotals gained on improving sentiment in the US economy. The Sensex and Nifty closed with gains of 0.5% each. However, BSE mid and small-cap indices were down by 1% each. Among the front liners, TCS, Wipro, Tata Power, Tata Motors and HDFC gained 2–5%, while ITC, JP Associates, DLF, Reliance Infrastructure and Jindal Steel lost 1–2%. Among mid caps, Kwality Dairy, CMC, IBN 18, Marico and JM Financials gained 4%, while Redington India, TVS Motor, Sigrun Holdings, IL&FS Transportation Network and Indraprastha Gas lost 4–6%.

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 19984/6001 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 20107–20212/6041–6072 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 19984/6001 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 19879–19756/5970–5930 levels.

Economic and Political News
• India's GDP likely to grow by 9.2% in FY2011, says CMIE
• Kotak Mahindra ups interest rates on term deposits
• Rupee at 4-month peak; up 15 paise against dollar
Corporate News
• Bajaj to increase Discover production from next month
• Ranbaxy gets USFDA’s approval to sell Alzheimer's disease drug
• US firm, Prakash Steelage ink MoU for specialised forging unit

Market Outlook ---- September 21, 2010

Dealer’s Diary
The key benchmark indices opened on firm note on frenzied buying, outperforming its Asian and European counterparts. The market breath was strong throughout the trading session and it hit a fresh 32-month high in late trade as result of foreign institution’s buying spree and higher 2Q advance tax payments from frontline companies. FMCG stocks were in demand, with ITC striking its lifetime high. Metal and mining stocks gained, mirroring rise in global metal prices. Banking shares rose on fresh buying, while software pivotals saw mixed trend. The Sensex and Nifty closed with gains of 1.6% each. BSE mid and small-cap indices were up by 0.7% each. Among the front liners, RCOM, ITC, Hero Honda, HUL and HDFC gained 3–5%, while Sterlite Industries, NTPC, TCS, BHEL and Tata Power lost 0–1%. Among mid caps, Blue Star, GMDC, MVL, Brigade Entertainment and Bajaj Hindusthan gained 5–8%, while Edelweiss Cap., Blue Dart, Sigrun Holdings, Rajesh Exports and Purvankara Projects lost 3–5%.

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 19760/5952 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 20074–20241/6018–6056 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 19760/5952 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 19592–19278/5914–5847 levels.

Economic and Political News
• BSE to launch mobile trading platform
• FM expects over 8.5% GDP growth in 2010–11
• Gold hits fresh record peak on economy concerns
Corporate News
• Bharti Airtel selects 3G network gear partners
• Core Projects buys two US companies for US $20mn
• Rural Electrification Corp. gets infrastructure finance company status

Market Outlook----September 17, 2010

Dealer’s Diary
The key benchmark indices scaled their 32-month high in early trade. However, the market slipped into the red in morning trade, as most Asian stocks and US index futures fell before surging to a fresh 32-month high in afternoon trade after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), at a mid-term policy review, signaled that it may be nearing a pause in its current tightening cycle. The market came off the higher level later. The market hit a fresh intraday low in late trade. The Sensex came off the lower level later. The Sensex and Nifty closed with losses of 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. BSE mid and small-cap indices closed down by 1.0% and 0.4%, respectively. Among the front liners, DLF, HDFC, SBI, Maruti Suzuki and L&T gained 1–3%, while Infosys, Reliance Comm., Bharti Airtel, Sterlite Inds and Jaiprakash Associates lost 2–3%. Among mid caps, Alstom Projects, Indraprastha Gas, Alfa Laval, Berger Paints and Redington gained 3–6%, while HT Media, Shree Global, Pantaloon, Jagran Prakashan and Dish TV lost 4–8%.

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 19479/5849 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 19575–19732/5882–5935 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 19479/5849 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 19322–19226/5796–5763 levels.

Economic and Political News
• Food inflation rises to 15.1%
• Fiscal deficit to be contained at targeted 5.5%: RBI
• Government raises DA to 45%, to cost exchequer Rs9,303cr p.a.
• Economy to grow by 9% in FY2011–12: Finance Minister
• Monsoon rains 19% above normal in the past week: Met. Department

Corporate News

• Ashok Leyland bags order for 2,850 buses from Tamil Nadu government
• JK Paper to raise about Rs450cr
• Ispat to sell 10% stake to UK’s Stemcor

Market Outlook ---- September 15, 2010

Dealer’s Diary

The markets opened on a firm note on data showing heavy buying by FIIs on Monday. The market surged in morning trade, extending initial gains. The sharp rally was followed by the Sensex instantly paring gains. The market came off the lower level in mid-morning trade as the rate of rise in inflation eased in August 2010. Stocks moved in a narrow range in early afternoon trade. The market strengthened in afternoon trade before coming off the higher levels in mid-afternoon trade. The Sensex and Nifty closed with gains of 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. BSE mid and small-cap indices  underperformed the benchmark indices to end lower by 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. Among the front liners, Wipro, Jaiprakash Associates, Tata Motors, Sterlite Industries and DLF gained 3–4%, while Hindalco, ACC, SBI, Tata Power and Tata Steel lost 1–2%. Among mid caps, Sigrun Holdings, Dewan Housing, Ashok Leyland, Dish TV and Wockhardt gained 4–10%, while Ruchi Soya, Coromandel Intl, MVL, S. Kumars Nationwide and Britannia Industries lost 5–6%.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 19351/5798 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 19483–19620/5836–5876 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 19351/ 5798 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 19214–19082/5758–5720 levels.

Economic and Political News

·         April-Aug indirect tax revenue up 45% yoy

·         Inflation dips to 8.5% on new series debut

·         Coal curbs to hit new power units

Corporate News

·         S Kumars raises US $50mn in share sale

·         RPG firms buys 10% in Australian coal company

·         United Spirits to buy 54.69% stake in PDL for Rs73.95cr

Market Outlook ---- September 14, 2010

Dealer’s Diary
The market surged in the morning trade due to firm Asian stocks. The key benchmark indices scaled their highest level in nearly 32 months. The market continued its uptrend in early afternoon trade. Stocks further extended gains in mid-afternoon trade, bolstered by better-than-expected industrial production numbers in July. The market hit a fresh intraday high in afternoon on positive global cues post Europe's Basel III norms for banks and US economic data. Finally, the Sensex and Nifty closed with gains of 2.2% and 2.1%, respectively. BSE mid and small-cap indices underperformed the benchmark indices to end higher by 0.8% and 0.2%, respectively. Among the front liners, SBI, HDFC, Hindalco, Reliance Infra and ICICI Bank gained 4–6%, while Wipro, Reliance Comm., Hero Honda and Bharti Airtel lost 0–1%. Among mid caps, Sigrun Holdings, Berger Paints, BASF India, UTV Software and M&M Finance gained 6–10%, while Shree Global Traders, Ruchi Soya, GSPL, IVR Prime and Allcargo Global lost 3–11%.

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 19,099 / 5,723 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 19,353 – 19,497 / 5,807 – 5,855 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 19,099 / 5,723 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 18,955 – 18,701 / 5,676 – 5,592 levels.

Economic and Political News
• New WPI series comes into effect today
• Urea investment policy to do away with competitive bids for new units
• RBI names panel to examine LAF corridor
• Indian Banks may not need more capital for Basel-III
Corporate News
• Shriram, TPG to buy Vishal Retail for Rs100cr
• Nestle to invest Rs500cr in food processing unit
• Wyeth sues Dr. Reddy’s Lab over drug patent

Market Outlook ---- September 13, 2010

Dealer’s Diary

The market cut gains after hitting a 31-month high at the onset of the trading session. Stocks came further off highs in mid-morning trade. A bout of volatility was witnessed in early afternoon trade as the key benchmark indices came off lows. The market held the positive zone in afternoon trade before surging in mid-afternoon trade, as European stocks and US index futures moved into the green from red. The market cut gains, soon after hitting a fresh 31-month high in late trade. The Sensex and Nifty closed with gains of 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. BSE mid and small-cap indices gained 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively. Among the front liners, M&M, SBI, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Tata Steel gained 2–3%, while Cipla, Tata Motors, Reliance Infra, ACC and Sterlite Industries lost 1–2%. Among mid caps, BASF India, Whirlpool, Coromandel International, Sigrun Holdings and KEC International gained 6– 10%, while Shree Global Trading, MVL, Indraprastha Gas, Gammon Infra and Radico Khaitan lost 3–20%.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 18764 / 5632 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 18859 – 18918 / 5656 - 5671 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 18764 / 5632 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 18705 – 18610 / 5616 - 5593 levels.

Economic and Political News

·         IPO norms for non-life insurance companies in three weeks: IRDA

·         Food inflation rises to 11.47% from 10.86%

·         IIP grows 13.8% yoy in July 2010

·         Govt to introduce two new CPI indices for tracking inflation by January 2011

Corporate News

·         Lanco Infra achieves financial closure of 1,320MW project

·         Kotak Realty invests Rs250cr in Emaar MGF projects

·         Emami, Marico join fray for Paras Pharma

·         Power Grid's Rs8,000cr FPO to hit street in November

Market Outlook ---- September 8, 2010

Dealer’s Diary
The benchmark indices continued their previous session’s positive streak by opening in green following a healthy start in Asian indices. The markets gained further ground in the morning session but the rally was short-lived as a minor sell-off took the indices lower. The indices continued to trade in a narrow zone until the final session, where a swift bout of buying took the markets to fresh 31- month highs. However, profit booking in the final half hour erased the gains from the rally with indices closing the session with moderate gains. The Sensex and Nifty closed with gains of 0.5% each. BSE mid and small-cap indices gained 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. Among the front liners, ACC, L&T, TCS, JP Associates and Jindal Steel gained 2–7%, while HUL, SBI, HDFC Bank, Tata Power and M&M lost 1%. Among mid caps, Prism Cement, Wockhardt, Madras Cements, India Cements and Dalmia Cement gained 9–16%, while Sirgun Holdings, United Breweries, United Breweries Holdings, HT Media and Amtek Auto lost 4–7%.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 18643 / 5600 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 18714 – 18782 / 5629 – 5654 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 18643 / 5600 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 18574 – 18503 / 5575 – 5547 levels.

Economic and Political News
• Companies bill to become law by fiscal-end: MCA Secretary
• Govt. will soon start releasing monthly data on FDI outflows
• FDI inflows down by 49% in July 2010
• Natural rubber production up 12% in August at 72,500tonnes

Corporate News

• Wipro may pass the cost rise from visa fees to clients
• Aditya Birla Nuvo to infuse Rs300cr in Aditya Birla Finance Ltd.
• Yes Bank to raise Rs500cr by December via Tier II capital: MD
• Tata Steel puts South African unit (Tata Steel KZN Pte) on the block

Market Outlook --- September 7, 2010

Dealer’s Diary

The Indian indices witnessed a broad-based rally following strong gains in global indices, as the US reported a better-than-expected payroll data, giving credibility to recovery in the world's biggest economy. The markets opened gapup and continued to rise steadily without any major dip throughout the session. The positive sentiment was evident from lack of volatility. The benchmark indices, viz. BSE Sensex and S&P CNX Nifty, hit their highest level in the last 31 months as good monsoon and sustained buying by foreign funds boosted investor sentiment. The Sensex and Nifty closed with gains of 1.9% and 1.8%, respectively. BSE mid and small-cap indices rose in line with benchmark indices, registering gains of 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively. Among the front liners, Tata Steel, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Sterlite Industries and JP Associates gained 3–7%, while Hero Honda, Reliance Comm., HUL and L&T lost 0–2%. Among mid caps, MVL, Gujarat Gas, Apollo Tyres, Sterling Bio and Indian Metals gained 6– 15%, while KEC International, Sirgun Holdings, Allcargo Global, Nirma and Sunteck Realty lost 2–7%.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 18428 / 5549 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 18732 – 18904 / 5618 - 5658 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 18428 / 5549 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 18256 – 17952 / 5508 - 5439 levels.

Economic and Political News

·         Decision on Cairn-Vedanta deal in 4–6 weeks: Murli Deora

·         Govt. planning IOC, ONGC stake sale in March quarter

·         Direct tax collections up 14% during April–August 2010

·         Marine exports jump about 22% in July 2010

Corporate News

·         PFC to raise US $240mn loans in Japan and China

·         HDFC Bank hikes BPLR by 50bp to 16.25%

·         Firstsource inks outsourcing deal with Axis Bank

·         Aurobindo Pharma in licensing pact with Astra Zeneca

Market Outlook ---- September 6, 2010

Dealer’s Diary
The markets opened in green following cues from Asian indices. However, markets traded in a narrow range with high volatility and gave up early gains. By the beginning of the afternoon session, markets traded in red, but mildly recovered to trade near their previous close before slipping again to fall near the day’s lows. The beginning of the final session again witnessed recovery, taking indices in the green, but a sharp sell-off took indices lower in the negative. The Sensex and Nifty closed lower by 0.1% each, while the BSE mid and small-cap indices outperformed their benchmark indices with gains of 1.0% each. Among the front liners, Hero Honda, Bharti Airtel, Reliance Infra, ONGC and HUL gained 1–2%, while Jindal Steel, JP Associates, Hindalco, Sterlite Industries and Reliance Ind. lost 1–2%. Among mid caps, KEC Int., Nirma, MVL, Escorts and MRF gained 7–14%, while KGN Industries, Sirgun Holdings, Rajesh Exports, Infotech Enterprises and Peninsula Land lost 3–4%.

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 18248 / 5488 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 18290 – 18358 / 5502 - 5525 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 18248 / 5488 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 18180 – 18138 / 5465 - 5451 levels.

Economic and Political News
• Maharashtra govt. probing irregularities in HCC’s Lavasa project
• Govt. clears US $5bn airplane purchases by SpiceJet, IndiGo and Jet Lite
• Govt. allows duty-free export of 5.5mn cotton bales

Corporate News

• RIL buys 3mn barrels spot Brazil crude
• ADAG picks up 15% in new Kerala airport
• Birlas raise stake in Hindalco by 4%
• Britannia to invest Rs100cr in two new plants in Bihar and Orissa

Market Outlook ---- September 3, 2010

Dealer’s Diary

On Thursday, markets witnessed selling pressure towards late trades wiping off almost entire gains in contrast to the strong start. Buoyant auto sales in August 2010 and robust manufacturing activity bolstered sentiment in early trades. European stocks too edged higher amidst volatile trades. The Asian markets were firm on encouraging economic data. The Indian markets pared gains in a volatile afternoon session only to regain strength in mid-afternoon trades. It cut gains in late trades as index heavyweight Reliance Industries declined. The Sensex and Nifty closed up 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. The BSE mid- and small-cap indices closed up 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively. Among the frontliners, Jaiprakash Associates, Sterlite Industries, Tata Power, HDFC and HDFC Bank gained 1–4%, while Hero Honda, TCS, BHEL, Bharti Airtel and Infosys lost 1–3%. Among the mid-caps, Apollo Tyres, Gujarat NRE Coke, Bayer Corp, IOB, and Ispat Industries gained 6–12%, while Sterlite Technologies, KGN Industries, State Bank of Bikaner, Dredging Corp and MVL lost 4–5%.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 18270/5491 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 18324–18140/5509–5533 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 18270/5491 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 18184–18129/5467–5449 levels.

Economic and Political News

·         Trade deficit in the first four months of the financial year reached US$43.6bn

·         CM wants incentives to SEZ to continue

·         Shipping ministry sanctions funds to port for land

Corporate News

·         JSW Steel raises prices by 3-4%

·         IRB Infra in pact with Indian Hotels to build hotel

·         Welspun Corp bags Rs700cr orders

·         Nalco open to equity dilution in US$3.9bn Indonesian project

Market Outlook

Dealer’s Diary
The market extended gains in morning trade and turned range bound in mid-morning trade. Strong global cues pushed the market sharply higher in the second half of trade. The market spurted to the day's high in mid-afternoon trade and extended gains in late trade as European stocks and US index futures rose. Strong auto sales, expansion in the manufacturing sector in August 2010 and resumption of buying by foreign funds underpinned sentiments. All the sectoral indices on the BSE were in green and the market breadth was strong. The Sensex and Nifty closed up by 1.3% each. BSE mid-cap and the small-cap indices closed up by 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively. Among the front liners, RCOM, Hindalco Industries, Sterlite Industries, Bharti Airtel and Tata Steel gained 3–5%, while Hero Honda, HDFC and ONGC lost 0–2%. Among mid caps, STC, FDC, United Breweries, Dredging Corp. and State Bank of Mysore gained 10–14%, while Allcargo Global, Shree Global Tradefin, Jain Irrigation, Fresenius Kabi Oncology and GSK Consumer lost 2–4%.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 18153 / 5451 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 18280 – 18353 / 5499 - 5527 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 18153 / 5451 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 18080 – 17953 / 5424 - 5376 levels.

Economic and Political News
• Fiscal deficit fell 42% to Rs91k cr during April-July
• India's July exports up 13.2% yoy
• Govt says no to fresh gas allocation from KG-D6
• Coal India may not need anchor investors to support IPO

Corporate News

• RIL notifies fourth gas strike in D3 block of KG basin
• ONGC can decide on bidding for Cairn India by October
• HDFC raises benchmark lending rates
• Elder Pharma plans US $50mn QIP issue